Forward Observation Post – Vermillion

Views and Vents from the Frontline of the Culture War

GM is Getting More Like the Government

Apr 24

Posted by FOPVermillion in Economy, Politics | 1 Comment

This week I heard the news that GM was paying off their debt early.  My first reaction was that this is good news since I was not a fan of the bailout and I want to see GM stand on its own as quickly as possible.  Of course, the question that came to mind that was not answered in the article I read was, where did the money come from?  Let’s face it, if they had several billion lying around they would not have needed the bailout.  My assumption was that they took out a loan or did some other normal method of raising cash to pay off the TARP loan.  I was shocked that the funds came from a line of credit available in the TARP program.  So they paid of the loan by taking another loan.  What a joke.  This is the kind of gimmicks the government does with their books.  Money spent does not add to the deficit because it is are “off budget”.  There is a “trust fund” for Social Security.  And so on.

GM is doing this because they are hurting from the stigma of being Government Motors and they are looking to whitewash reality rather than take the right steps to change the situation the right way.  We are on to them and it will take a more serious effort than this if they want to turn it around.

Until then, when I buy American, it will be Ford.  They may have debt up to their eyeballs but they are managing on their own without the help of big brother.  Based on the fact that Ford is in the black, I expect I am not alone.

- FOP Vermillion

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Volcano

Apr 18

Posted by FOPVermillion in Environment | No Comments

As any readers of this blog will know, I am not a fan of AGW theory.  There is little doubt in my mind that the climate changes from time to time but we as people can do little to change it.  The planet is tough and we give ourselves too much credit that we can mold nature through our action.  When nature takes its course, it puts us to shame.  Exhibit A right now is the volcano erupting in Iceland.  This one event has the possibility of impacting the environment more than much of what we do on a day-to-day basis.  If this thing erupts as long as a month throwing ash into the air, it WILL change the climate for a period of time.  How much and by what, who knows.  The point is that in a matter of days we could see change and it had nothing to do with SUVs, coal, or any other evil tool of industrialization.    And this is a little one.

We need to take a step back and appreciate nature and the power of the planet.  In the grand scheme, we are still pretty small and insignificant.  Be grateful for the things you can change, understand what we cannot, and be happy with it.

- FOP Vermillion

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Who Needs Reality

Jan 3

Posted by FOPVermillion in General | No Comments

I was at our local coffee shop hanging out and a person joined the group for the first time.  She was nice enough and the conversations soon moved from coffee to other topics.  When that happened, it became clear she was quite liberal.  I have seen liberals online and in media and I certainly know what to look for but I rarely see any out in the real world.  It was amazing as time and time again, she would start a point she was about to make by explaining how little she knew about the subject matter.  The solutions were about how to make things fair and reward the little guy rather than what would make good long term sense for the person or the employer.  The ideas sure were fun but there was no way they would ever happen.  I can only imagine what the outcome would have been if both of us were liberals.  Then both of us could have built up the idea by telling each other how great it was and how the company needed to invest in their employees.  Gee wasn’t it sad that other enlightened people could not have the same ideas “we” did.  This is why liberals get into trouble and turn to government to force the solutions.  No one who knew the bigger picture would implement the idea but now you can make it a requirement to stay in business and you can tell yourself it is for their own good that you are forcing them to do these things.  What difference does the real harm matter when the intentions are pure?  Not much in many cases.

I enjoyed the conversation because it was easy to redirect her and she was listening even if she could not be convinced.  However, seeing what is out there and in charge in Washington in person was frightening.

- FOP Vermillion

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Citizens Against Terror

Dec 20

Posted by FOPVermillion in 2nd Amendment, War on Terror | No Comments

I saw mention of this story over at Patterico bringing attention to a warning by Scotland Yard of Mumbai style attacks coming to London.  The article got me thinking about what would happen if the tactic is employed here instead of, or in addition to, London.  In that scenario, I am glad for the Second Amendment and legal concealed carry in most states.  Considering one reason the attack was effective in Mumbai was the gunmen seemed to be everywhere and law enforcement was overwhelmed.  It would be a similar situation here in outcome, if not in fact.  This is because in most active shooter scenarios, the police look to secure the area and then deal with the shooter.  If there are multiple shooters, the SOP and local law enforcement will be overwhelmed .  They may have brainstormed it but unless the shooters pick somewhere with a highly trained large force like NYC or LA, it will be too much for them.  When that happens, it will be up to the people to do what they can if and when it is possible.  I am grateful I will have the choice and the ability to act if that time comes.

- FOP Vermillion

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It is not over yet

Dec 20

Posted by FOPVermillion in General, Politics | No Comments

All the news about the health care monstrosity continues to demonstrate that the Democrats are moving toward getting their bill out of the Senate.  It is disappointing how easy it is to buy off and arm twist Senators.  At this time, I think the bill will make it out of the Senate.  Once this happens, it gets interesting.  The only way this ends quickly is if the House bites the bullet and goes to pass the Senate version.  That way it will be over and they don’t have to come back to the Senate.  Considering how much the White House has been working over everyone to pass the bill, I can see this option being a real possibility.  However, one should not underestimate the egos in the House.  They have a lot in their bill that they see as being important.  After all the bruising to pass their version, to walk away and take the Senate version will be a VERY bitter pill.  Because of this, I think the reconciliation process is a real possibility.  The bill that comes out has to pass both chambers again and there will be no ability to modify the bill.  There is every possibility the compromises will strain the coalition that needed to be built to pass the first time.  I am sure Nancy can get the 218 votes needed but getting back to 60 could be a real problem in the Senate.  Time is on our side.  If the bill goes to conference, it will be there for weeks if not months.  When it comes out it, the public will get to read it and send some heat to everyone who is thinking of voting on the bill.  Beyond that, there is the election year issues.  The longer the process takes, the more it becomes an issue in the primaries and general election.

The people clearly do not like the bill.  If this process drags out to election time, it will become the central theme of the election and based on the current polls, this will not be a good thing for the leadership of the Democrats.  Obama has the luxury of not having a re-election fight for a few more years.  This is not a luxury many in Congress have at their disposal.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the egos in the House rule the day and the bill goes to committee.

For once, I am glad congress is filled with self important fools.

- FOP Vermillion

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West Point Blues

Dec 1

Posted by FOPVermillion in Millitary, War on Terror | 1 Comment

I just caught the last few minutes of the speech at West Point and I am pissed.  First, for a President that has not shown that he gets the military or the fact that we are at war, it came across as if the Corps of Cadets was being used as a prop.  Considering how bright these young men and women are, they could have gotten into the elite colleges, and yet they CHOSE to go to a college where they would be required to serve after graduation and go into harm’s way.  You do not do this if you do not believe in the country and the cause.  West Point is famous for the Douglas MacArthur speech where the words Duty, Honor, Country rang through the hall.  The corps knows what is at stake and they do not need to be sold.

The second thing that got me going was the whole world without nuclear weapons bit.  I do not for one second believe that if we had no weapons we would all get along.  An argument can be made that the longest period of prolonged peace has been since the invention of nuclear weapons.  To think that we would be liked and listened to if we were weak is naive.  It is a nice idea to hold onto in college but in a world leader it shakes my confidence.

Tonight was a disappointing night.  Obama went to West Point to elevate his stature.  He failed.

- FOP Vermillion

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The Dreaded Reset

Nov 23

Posted by FOPVermillion in Politics | No Comments

I was reading this post at Powerlineblog where Paul gives some good analysis of the terrible decisions we are making in Afghanistan.  I agree with the substance of the post – the administration is stumbling around and heavy handed in country.  The result is a poor policy and we are losing ground.  The part that got me thinking was this bit:

Now, at last, we’re attempting a “reset.” The CIA has sent a field officer who has strong relations with Karzai to be its Kabul station chief and Hillary Clinton – the Secretary of Reset – tried to charm Karzai at a dinner earlier this week. Meanwhile, Holbrooke is spending more time in Washington and has focused on obtaining international support of reconstruction projects and development programs. This sounds like his highest and best use.

I agree the Administration is trying a reset.  The problem is resets only work in theory.  Relationships between states are not purely about one group’s opinion.  Sure when you have a change of administration, you get an opportunity to make changes, but you still do not get a clean slate.  Regardless of the positions taken by the previous administration, there are reasons the relationships and positions taken exist.  The simplest reason, and the one that Team Obama seem to underestimate, is that the other side has their own agenda and priorities.

So the idea of a complete reset at the beginning is a stretch.  It is even more absurd after they have been ham-handed and decide you need a fresh start.  Think of this in terms of your own life.  You have a business in town that you deal with and has been around for a while.  Now they get bought out and let everyone know they are “under new management”.  So you check them out and decide they you do not like the way you are treated and the customer service is poor so after a few experiences you start going less or not at all.  Well they want your business so they decide to fire the manager and “reset” the business.  They make a big deal about the change to get you in.  Do you go back?  Maybe, but more than likely, you still expect to be treated the way you were before and you may not need them anymore.  You have found someone else who does the job you need done and you like them better.  Just because they canned the old manager doesn’t mean you are running back.

This is the same garbage the Obama Administration is trying to pull.  They are all, “We are new and improved” and then when they blow it, they try to change the faces and say forget what happened before.  The problem is the world is watching and they are figuring out the playbook.  If we can’t get serious about diplomacy and not having to rely on do overs to give us chance after chance to get it right, we are doomed to be a joke in international relations.

- FOP Vermillion

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The Momentum is Coming to an End

Nov 15

Posted by FOPVermillion in Economy, Politics | 5 Comments

Obama’s obsession with pushing through health care reform to the exclusion of everything else is costing him.  I understand this is seen as his signature item and a many liberals and Democrats WANT the legislation very badly.  The problem is that as James Carvile said, “It’s the economy stupid.”  Everyone is worried about 10%+ unemployment and the fact that the job pool is shrinking.  They are much less concerned about health care right now.  If Obama had not come into a bad economy when he took the oath of office, he and the Dems could be rolling through one piece of major legislation after another.  However, that is not the case and the Administration seems tone deaf, to be generous.  They have too much invested in health care reform to let it go but this article by Scott Rasmussen highlights the the fact that the dems are losing the public.  If they cannot get this beast passed soon, and they make it the cornerstone of next year, they will have serious problems.

Come next November, the economy and jobs will be the number one issue.  If the Dems have any chance not to repeat 1994, they need to be able to point to things they have done to create jobs.  Without that, they will have to spend their time and war chests to convince the voters that the bills they have passed will not do as much damage as many analysts suspect.  This is not a good position to be in.  “Re-elect me because my it won’t be as bad as my opponent says it will be” is not a strong selling point.  I suppose they will try to pass Stimulus II but there is no chance it will have an impact prior to the election unless it business and tax friendly so that the effects can be felt right away.  Continuing to extend unemployment is not a winner in my book.  It does help ease the pain of being out of work, but it doesn’t get people back to work.

Right now Obama is dividing the party and focusing on the wrong things.  In short order, Obama could take his party from majority to minority status in a short two-year window.  Considering how much I do not like the direction this President and Administration want to take the country in, I am happy to see it happen.  Twelve months ago, I expected the Democrats would be in power for four years for sure and more than likely another four based on Obam’s popularity.  Now with all the missteps and ham-handed manner they have governed, there is a real chance they will blow it all before Obama is even up for re-election.  Amazing.

- FOP Vermillion

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A Theory on Major Hasan

Nov 8

Posted by FOPVermillion in Millitary | No Comments

As the news has come out it is clear Maj Hasan was a known terrorist sympathizer and had possible ties to people connected to the 9/11 attacks.   When we hear that, it creates questions about why the guy was allowed to remain in the service.  I know my first thought was they needed to kick the guy out.  The powers that be must have been worried, considering we have heard he was under investigation.  So why not do something?

I think the investigators (F.B.I., DOD, whoever) felt like they had a great lead here.  Here was a guy who was connected with radical mosques was a true believer and was a Major in the military.  If there was a serious sleeper cell in the area, they would want to recruit Hasan and use him to pull off something big.  A Major in the US Army would have access and be able to go places terrorists could only dream of even being in the medical field.  Armories, bombs, or entry to sensitive areas would all be juicy targets for terrorists.  I think Hasan was allowed to run free and do his thing because he was bait.  The investigators probably felt it was a matter of time before they would get a lead to a big fish.

If that is the case I can hardly blame them.  Let’s face it… Hasan was highly educated and had been in the system for years and had done nothing more than express sympathies for the enemy.  Not the type of behavior you would want in an officer and a gentleman but not the profile of a lone gunman.  However, the London bombers were also highly educated individuals.  In hindsight, there were probably signs we have not heard of yet that might have made us think he was going to do something.

-FOP Vermillion

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Ft. Hood Shooting

Nov 5

Posted by FOPVermillion in 2nd Amendment, Millitary | No Comments

Watching the news stories about the shooting at Fort Hood, I kept thinking how similar it was to the Virgina Tech shooting two years ago.  As the facts available now point to one shooter (there is a search for suspects) who is a person with mental health issues, who took at least two handguns and quite a bit of ammunition and shot at least 50 people in a short period of time.  Once again my first reaction was if only someone with a gun had been there to stop him.  Once again I look at the reports of the location described and I know there would be no one armed near by.  The location was one that was part clinic and part administration building.  The people working there were likely the kind of stereotypical rear-echelon individuals who only saw a weapon when they qualified and didn’t see it again for six months to a year.  These were not warriors who run to the sounds of the guns.  They were just your ordinary people who work in an office but wear camouflage instead of khakis.  The people visiting the building were there to get their affairs in order or to get check ups and likely were on auto pilot.  When the shooting started, I am sure the first response was one of disbelief.   From here on, anything would be wild speculation.

While people think of the military as being the people with the guns, the truth is that a base/post is one of the biggest gun free zones there are.  All the governments weapons are strictly controlled and the rules are strict on personal ownership.  If there was a weapon within several blocks of the shooting, I guarantee it was in a locked building with several layers of security.  So once again, we have a shooting in an area where we have made it easy for the shooter to go about his business with minimal risk for the first critical moments of the attack.  Bret Baier spent much of his time talking about how many bullets the guy must have fired.  I am sure there will be much talk about the tools this murderer used today.  However, I for one can’t help but think of the tools denied to so many of the victims.  A few guns in the hands of the people in the building could have saved many lives.  I think it is safe to assume nearly everyone shot today had training with a weapon and would have been able to effectively defend themselves given the opportunity.  The ironic part is that if this happened in theater the shooter, rather than the victims, would never have stood a chance because of the hail of bullets.

- FOP Vermillion

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