Forward Observation Post – Vermillion

Views and Vents from the Frontline of the Culture War

Archive for November, 2009

The Dreaded Reset

Nov 23

Posted by FOPVermillion in Politics | No Comments

I was reading this post at Powerlineblog where Paul gives some good analysis of the terrible decisions we are making in Afghanistan.  I agree with the substance of the post – the administration is stumbling around and heavy handed in country.  The result is a poor policy and we are losing ground.  The part that got me thinking was this bit:

Now, at last, we’re attempting a “reset.” The CIA has sent a field officer who has strong relations with Karzai to be its Kabul station chief and Hillary Clinton – the Secretary of Reset – tried to charm Karzai at a dinner earlier this week. Meanwhile, Holbrooke is spending more time in Washington and has focused on obtaining international support of reconstruction projects and development programs. This sounds like his highest and best use.

I agree the Administration is trying a reset.  The problem is resets only work in theory.  Relationships between states are not purely about one group’s opinion.  Sure when you have a change of administration, you get an opportunity to make changes, but you still do not get a clean slate.  Regardless of the positions taken by the previous administration, there are reasons the relationships and positions taken exist.  The simplest reason, and the one that Team Obama seem to underestimate, is that the other side has their own agenda and priorities.

So the idea of a complete reset at the beginning is a stretch.  It is even more absurd after they have been ham-handed and decide you need a fresh start.  Think of this in terms of your own life.  You have a business in town that you deal with and has been around for a while.  Now they get bought out and let everyone know they are “under new management”.  So you check them out and decide they you do not like the way you are treated and the customer service is poor so after a few experiences you start going less or not at all.  Well they want your business so they decide to fire the manager and “reset” the business.  They make a big deal about the change to get you in.  Do you go back?  Maybe, but more than likely, you still expect to be treated the way you were before and you may not need them anymore.  You have found someone else who does the job you need done and you like them better.  Just because they canned the old manager doesn’t mean you are running back.

This is the same garbage the Obama Administration is trying to pull.  They are all, “We are new and improved” and then when they blow it, they try to change the faces and say forget what happened before.  The problem is the world is watching and they are figuring out the playbook.  If we can’t get serious about diplomacy and not having to rely on do overs to give us chance after chance to get it right, we are doomed to be a joke in international relations.

- FOP Vermillion

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The Momentum is Coming to an End

Nov 15

Posted by FOPVermillion in Economy, Politics | 2 Comments

Obama’s obsession with pushing through health care reform to the exclusion of everything else is costing him.  I understand this is seen as his signature item and a many liberals and Democrats WANT the legislation very badly.  The problem is that as James Carvile said, “It’s the economy stupid.”  Everyone is worried about 10%+ unemployment and the fact that the job pool is shrinking.  They are much less concerned about health care right now.  If Obama had not come into a bad economy when he took the oath of office, he and the Dems could be rolling through one piece of major legislation after another.  However, that is not the case and the Administration seems tone deaf, to be generous.  They have too much invested in health care reform to let it go but this article by Scott Rasmussen highlights the the fact that the dems are losing the public.  If they cannot get this beast passed soon, and they make it the cornerstone of next year, they will have serious problems.

Come next November, the economy and jobs will be the number one issue.  If the Dems have any chance not to repeat 1994, they need to be able to point to things they have done to create jobs.  Without that, they will have to spend their time and war chests to convince the voters that the bills they have passed will not do as much damage as many analysts suspect.  This is not a good position to be in.  “Re-elect me because my it won’t be as bad as my opponent says it will be” is not a strong selling point.  I suppose they will try to pass Stimulus II but there is no chance it will have an impact prior to the election unless it business and tax friendly so that the effects can be felt right away.  Continuing to extend unemployment is not a winner in my book.  It does help ease the pain of being out of work, but it doesn’t get people back to work.

Right now Obama is dividing the party and focusing on the wrong things.  In short order, Obama could take his party from majority to minority status in a short two-year window.  Considering how much I do not like the direction this President and Administration want to take the country in, I am happy to see it happen.  Twelve months ago, I expected the Democrats would be in power for four years for sure and more than likely another four based on Obam’s popularity.  Now with all the missteps and ham-handed manner they have governed, there is a real chance they will blow it all before Obama is even up for re-election.  Amazing.

- FOP Vermillion

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A Theory on Major Hasan

Nov 8

Posted by FOPVermillion in Millitary | No Comments

As the news has come out it is clear Maj Hasan was a known terrorist sympathizer and had possible ties to people connected to the 9/11 attacks.   When we hear that, it creates questions about why the guy was allowed to remain in the service.  I know my first thought was they needed to kick the guy out.  The powers that be must have been worried, considering we have heard he was under investigation.  So why not do something?

I think the investigators (F.B.I., DOD, whoever) felt like they had a great lead here.  Here was a guy who was connected with radical mosques was a true believer and was a Major in the military.  If there was a serious sleeper cell in the area, they would want to recruit Hasan and use him to pull off something big.  A Major in the US Army would have access and be able to go places terrorists could only dream of even being in the medical field.  Armories, bombs, or entry to sensitive areas would all be juicy targets for terrorists.  I think Hasan was allowed to run free and do his thing because he was bait.  The investigators probably felt it was a matter of time before they would get a lead to a big fish.

If that is the case I can hardly blame them.  Let’s face it… Hasan was highly educated and had been in the system for years and had done nothing more than express sympathies for the enemy.  Not the type of behavior you would want in an officer and a gentleman but not the profile of a lone gunman.  However, the London bombers were also highly educated individuals.  In hindsight, there were probably signs we have not heard of yet that might have made us think he was going to do something.

-FOP Vermillion

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Ft. Hood Shooting

Nov 5

Posted by FOPVermillion in 2nd Amendment, Millitary | No Comments

Watching the news stories about the shooting at Fort Hood, I kept thinking how similar it was to the Virgina Tech shooting two years ago.  As the facts available now point to one shooter (there is a search for suspects) who is a person with mental health issues, who took at least two handguns and quite a bit of ammunition and shot at least 50 people in a short period of time.  Once again my first reaction was if only someone with a gun had been there to stop him.  Once again I look at the reports of the location described and I know there would be no one armed near by.  The location was one that was part clinic and part administration building.  The people working there were likely the kind of stereotypical rear-echelon individuals who only saw a weapon when they qualified and didn’t see it again for six months to a year.  These were not warriors who run to the sounds of the guns.  They were just your ordinary people who work in an office but wear camouflage instead of khakis.  The people visiting the building were there to get their affairs in order or to get check ups and likely were on auto pilot.  When the shooting started, I am sure the first response was one of disbelief.   From here on, anything would be wild speculation.

While people think of the military as being the people with the guns, the truth is that a base/post is one of the biggest gun free zones there are.  All the governments weapons are strictly controlled and the rules are strict on personal ownership.  If there was a weapon within several blocks of the shooting, I guarantee it was in a locked building with several layers of security.  So once again, we have a shooting in an area where we have made it easy for the shooter to go about his business with minimal risk for the first critical moments of the attack.  Bret Baier spent much of his time talking about how many bullets the guy must have fired.  I am sure there will be much talk about the tools this murderer used today.  However, I for one can’t help but think of the tools denied to so many of the victims.  A few guns in the hands of the people in the building could have saved many lives.  I think it is safe to assume nearly everyone shot today had training with a weapon and would have been able to effectively defend themselves given the opportunity.  The ironic part is that if this happened in theater the shooter, rather than the victims, would never have stood a chance because of the hail of bullets.

- FOP Vermillion

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Cold Feet in Congress

Nov 3

Posted by FOPVermillion in Politics | No Comments

More good news coming out of Congress relating to the healthcare bill.  Now the talk is that the “debate” will drag into next year.  Time is on our side in this one.  Time and time again, it has been proven that when the Democrats finally put out a plan and the public gets to see it, the public doesn’t like it.  That is one reason why the Dems have been rushing to push through a bill in the same style as cap and trade.  However, this time around people are getting smart, and let’s face it… reps are getting beat up in their districts, making it hard to ram through a bill.  Now if the elections go heavy against the Dems, there will be a lot of people who will be less likely to  risk their skin on an unpopular bill.  Politicians worry about number one and I don’t mean THE ONE.

The best thing for the death of this bill is time.  As the Dems get colder feet, there will be more time as everyone looks for a face saving option which means more time.  And more time is good.

- FOP Vermillion

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The Race Gets Weird in NY-23

Nov 1

Posted by FOPVermillion in Politics | No Comments

So Dede Scozzafava drops out of the race and proceeds to endorse the Democrat candidate that she was at war with a few weeks ago.  I have to say my first reaction is WTF!  Let’s face it… while I have problems with issue after issue with Dede, she supposedly was a loyal Republican who was picked by the powers that be to run and represent the party.  The argument was that she was hand-picked by the machine, not that she wasn’t a loyal Republican.  So knowing that, I am blown away that she would endorse the Democrat.  Sure she probably agrees with the Democrat more than the Conservitive on the issues but if she wants to have a long career with the party going forward, she should at a minimum stay quiet.  Now that she has gone full blown crazy, I have a hard time imagining that Dede’s days are numbered.  She will face opposition from within the party every time she is up for election.  If she survives the primary, the argument will be made that a vote for her might as well be a vote for the Democrat which will weaken her even more.  In the end, there is no way she will stay in office.

I hope she enjoys this payback.  It will likely be the gift that keeps on giving.

-FOP Vermillion

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