The people clearly do not like the bill.  If this process drags out to election time, it will become the central theme of the election and based on the current polls, this will not be a good thing for the leadership of the Democrats.  Obama has the luxury of not having a re-election fight for a few more years.  This is not a luxury many in Congress have at their disposal.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the egos in the House rule the day and the bill goes to committee.

For once, I am glad congress is filled with self important fools.

- FOP Vermillion

Come next November, the economy and jobs will be the number one issue.  If the Dems have any chance not to repeat 1994, they need to be able to point to things they have done to create jobs.  Without that, they will have to spend their time and war chests to convince the voters that the bills they have passed will not do as much damage as many analysts suspect.  This is not a good position to be in.  “Re-elect me because my it won’t be as bad as my opponent says it will be” is not a strong selling point.  I suppose they will try to pass Stimulus II but there is no chance it will have an impact prior to the election unless it business and tax friendly so that the effects can be felt right away.  Continuing to extend unemployment is not a winner in my book.  It does help ease the pain of being out of work, but it doesn’t get people back to work.

Right now Obama is dividing the party and focusing on the wrong things.  In short order, Obama could take his party from majority to minority status in a short two-year window.  Considering how much I do not like the direction this President and Administration want to take the country in, I am happy to see it happen.  Twelve months ago, I expected the Democrats would be in power for four years for sure and more than likely another four based on Obam’s popularity.  Now with all the missteps and ham-handed manner they have governed, there is a real chance they will blow it all before Obama is even up for re-election.  Amazing.

- FOP Vermillion

The best thing for the death of this bill is time.  As the Dems get colder feet, there will be more time as everyone looks for a face saving option which means more time.  And more time is good.

- FOP Vermillion

The new economic statistics put growth at a healthy 3.5% for the third quarter. We should be dancing in the streets. No one is, because no one has any faith in these numbers. Waves of money are sloshing through the system, creating a false rising tide that lifts all boats for the moment. The tide will recede. The boats aren’t rising, they’re bobbing, and will settle. No one believes the bad time is over. No one thinks we’re entering a new age of abundance. No one thinks it will ever be the same as before 2008. Economists, statisticians, forecasters and market specialists will argue about what the new numbers mean, but no one believes them, either. Among the things swept away in 2008 was public confidence in the experts. The experts missed the crash. They’ll miss the meaning of this moment, too.

The biggest threat to America right now is not government spending, huge deficits, foreign ownership of our debt, world terrorism, two wars, potential epidemics or nuts with nukes. The biggest long-term threat is that people are becoming and have become disheartened, that this condition is reaching critical mass, and that it afflicts most broadly and deeply those members of the American leadership class who are not in Washington, most especially those in business.

I read the rest of the column and I have to agree that we as a people are getting frustrated and disheartened.  I know why I am.  I am in the group that disagrees with the people in power and no one is listening to me (which is why I started the blog).  The proposed solutions treat me as a child who can’t be responsible while at the same time taking more and more of my money for my “own good” to fund this junk.  If Peggy is seeing this also, it is not something simply out here on the fringe.

Yes, I don’t see any of the leaders out there presenting a path to recovery and prosperity.  The Democrats with everything going on are more concerned with consolidating power than they are fixing the mess.  Regardless what Obama says about how we need to let him clean it up, I have not heard a plan.  Lowering emissions and decreasing energy use is not a plan to grow the economy.  Offering heathcare to those who don’t have it won’t grow the economy.  And spending $787 billion on stimulus over several years is not showing much progress either.

Where is the leadership?  Where is the plan to get us back?

I think Peggy says it nicely about our current leaders:

We are governed at all levels by America’s luckiest children, sons and daughters of the abundance, and they call themselves optimists but they’re not optimists—they’re unimaginative. They don’t have faith, they’ve just never been foreclosed on. They are stupid and they are callous, and they don’t mind it when people become disheartened. They don’t even notice.

At some point, children have to grow up.  Hopefully, it will be soon enough to make the pain bearable.

- FOP Vermillion

There is a lot of money on the sidelines at the moment and the public is not behind the takeover.  If the industry decides to push back hard, it will cause a significant problem for Congress.  The web, combined with large industry advertising spend, could cause the Democrats to pause and that would be a good thing.

Right now the inertia is on the side of “reform”.  We need some luck if we are to going to see this bill die.

- FOP Vermillion

So if every one knowledgeable knows this then who are they targeting?  The answer is pretty obvious.  Those who have no clue about credit, probably have bill payment issues, and likely live beyond their means.  With their success, they promote more of the same.  This ends up creating more problems for people who need help and not enabling.  As the rule of shovels goes, “When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.”

On a grander scale, this is what the government is doing at the moment.  They are spending more on debt (debt maintenance is rapidly growing as a portion of the budget), ignoring their credit (debt level), and living beyond their means (spending more than the tax revenue generates), all while refusing to address the problem because it could affect their power.

We are in debt as individuals and as a society and we refuse to accept the reality of the situation.  We must become fiscally responsible or it is just a matter of time before it ruins us.  The first step is spending less than we take in, and it needs to be in real terms.  The games with off budget, and funds repaid with IOU’s needs to end.  The other common game in government is the baseline budget that has built in increases.  A reduction in growth that actually increases spending year over year should not be labeled as a cut.  Unless we can make these little changes, we have no chance of pulling out of this dive.  We must promote responsibility if we are to have a chance, at both the individual and government levels.

- FOP Vermillion

The truth is the numbers are much worse (17%) when the discouraged and part-time workers are included.  This means that when the economy takes off, the unemployment number will not be coming down any time soon since the jobs will bring the discouraged workers back.

With this in mind, it is clear we are in bad shape and despite what VP Biden, says, the stimulus is not working.  So now Major Garrett reports that the Administration is looking at measures they can take to help (don’t call it Stimulus II).  The problem is, and this is a big one, the proposed changes do hardly anything to create jobs.  For the most part, the proposals are designed to make unemployment more comfortable which may be compassionate but is does nothing for the problem.  The job creator that I see in the report is an extension of the first time home buyer credit.  It may help some.  I see the home credit as a smaller cash for clunkers which has created artificial demand for homes that otherwise would not have existed so it likely will help some.

What we need are JOBS.  I am not optimistic with the current leadership but our best bet now to get out of the recession is for someone to  step up and admit that the targeted stimulus and “shovel ready” projects are not creating work and they need to take a free market approach.

Here are some things I would like to see although I do not expect they will be likely considering who is in charge at the moment.

• A stop on any legislation that if passed would harm business and restrict hiring.  If this one happens, it will be because the legislation was defeated. This would help move the business mindset away from risk management and damage minimization.  The fear of what might be forced on the market is encouraging playing it safe.
• Tax incentives to encourage hiring.  This one is pretty obvious.
• Tax incentives to encourage businesses to spend the cash they are accumulating.   They are sitting on huge cash reserves and they will not spend it if they don’t see a benefit.
• A tax holiday for individuals to increase take home.  Let;s face it … if we have more in our pockets, most of us spend it and consumer spending is needed if we are to come out of the recession.
• Incentives to encourage investing.  Those who have money are sitting on it or going for “safe” investments like gold.  That is no good for the markets.

We need to get people out of the fear mode and optimistic about the future.   To do that, we need things that are going to move the people with the money, whether that is individuals or businesses.  Increasing unemployment benefits and reducing the cost of insurance while you are out of work will not accomplish that.

- FOP Vermillion

Tim Ellis over at the Huffington Post asks, “Why Do Conservatives Hate America?”.  At the end of his column, he asks the reader to “lay it on me straight”.  Considering his point of view is so biased about Conservatives, I doubt he really wants an answer.  Let’s face it – when you can compare your opposition to wife beaters, you do not have much respect for the other side’s point of view.  However, he did inspire me so I am going to use the blog here to “answer” Tim.

First and foremost I love America.  The difference is I see America as being, We the People, and not the government.  This is a clear break from Tim, who sees government success as American success.  Let’s start with the Olympics.  It was not a failure of America when New York lost the bid for 2012 and it isn’t now.  Yes, this will look bad for the President since he put his prestige on the line and decided it was worth the trip at the last minute.  But I don’t see Obama being associated with the losing bid as being down on the country.

Now on taxes Tim states the following:

This is the same attitude that drives the conservative zeal for cutting taxes. The United States, they claim, is the best country in the world, and apparently the best way to show that is by not giving it the means to do anything. Taxes are the method by which civilization is paid for; they are an investment in our nation, an investment that conservatives are simply not interested in making. What kind of “patriot” won’t invest in America? That must be love.

This is where I think it is the most clear that Tim sees America as the government.  When I invest in America, I don’t write an extra check to the IRS so they can build civilization.  I invest in the people ideas and institutions.  The more money left over after taxes, the more I can invest in America.

I won’t get into the secessionist stuff as I am not an expert other than to say the bottom line for most of it is to say to the federal government, ENOUGH.  Do what you are supposed to do by the Constitution and by the law and no more.

The bottom line is the American people are amazing and creative and there is much to be admired and loved about them.  Individuals doing what they can and making the most of it is what made this country great.  The government is a framework to help enable the free flow of ideas and commerce and playing umpire to ensure fairness.  It is NOT America.  When we confuse the two, we start making assumptions and decisions that undermine liberty and freedom and place too much power in the hands of the state, all in the name of patriotism.

Tim, I don’t hate America, I just don’t see it the same way you do.

- FOP Vermillion

So with that in mind, if you are worried about how the message today after the speech is the Republicans were mean, and that the Democrats are fired up you should read Jay’s blog entry for today.  The bottom line if you are a Conservative is Obama does not understand what his party needs to pass this and he missed the opportunity last night.

With wiffs by the President like the one he had last night, as well as the disarray in Congress, I feel better by the day that HC reform is dying and with it a great deal of political capital used up.

- FOP Vermillion