Posts Tagged jay cost

The Momentum is Coming to an End

Obama’s obsession with pushing through health care reform to the exclusion of everything else is costing him.  I understand this is seen as his signature item and a many liberals and Democrats WANT the legislation very badly.  The problem is that as James Carvile said, “It’s the economy stupid.”  Everyone is worried about 10%+ unemployment and the fact that the job pool is shrinking.  They are much less concerned about health care right now.  If Obama had not come into a bad economy when he took the oath of office, he and the Dems could be rolling through one piece of major legislation after another.  However, that is not the case and the Administration seems tone deaf, to be generous.  They have too much invested in health care reform to let it go but this article by Scott Rasmussen highlights the the fact that the dems are losing the public.  If they cannot get this beast passed soon, and they make it the cornerstone of next year, they will have serious problems.

Come next November, the economy and jobs will be the number one issue.  If the Dems have any chance not to repeat 1994, they need to be able to point to things they have done to create jobs.  Without that, they will have to spend their time and war chests to convince the voters that the bills they have passed will not do as much damage as many analysts suspect.  This is not a good position to be in.  “Re-elect me because my it won’t be as bad as my opponent says it will be” is not a strong selling point.  I suppose they will try to pass Stimulus II but there is no chance it will have an impact prior to the election unless it business and tax friendly so that the effects can be felt right away.  Continuing to extend unemployment is not a winner in my book.  It does help ease the pain of being out of work, but it doesn’t get people back to work.

Right now Obama is dividing the party and focusing on the wrong things.  In short order, Obama could take his party from majority to minority status in a short two-year window.  Considering how much I do not like the direction this President and Administration want to take the country in, I am happy to see it happen.  Twelve months ago, I expected the Democrats would be in power for four years for sure and more than likely another four based on Obam’s popularity.  Now with all the missteps and ham-handed manner they have governed, there is a real chance they will blow it all before Obama is even up for re-election.  Amazing.

- FOP Vermillion

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Shooting Straight

After all the spin being put out there concerning the President’s speech, I really enjoyed the analysis done by Jay Cost over at Horse Race Blog. Jay cuts though the noise and provides a technical look at the process behind the issues and explains why something is likely to pass or fail. A good example of this is when everyone started assuming that the Democrats would be able to ram legislation through Congress, Jay pointed out how many Senators came from states that had been won by McCain in the last election.

So with that in mind, if you are worried about how the message today after the speech is the Republicans were mean, and that the Democrats are fired up you should read Jay’s blog entry for today.  The bottom line if you are a Conservative is Obama does not understand what his party needs to pass this and he missed the opportunity last night.

With wiffs by the President like the one he had last night, as well as the disarray in Congress, I feel better by the day that HC reform is dying and with it a great deal of political capital used up.

- FOP Vermillion

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