Posts Tagged jobs

Why We Are Not Excited

I was reading Peggy Noonan’s column today and I think she nailed it.  We are in the middle of good economic news and potentially the end of the recession and no one is excited at all.  As she starts off:

The new economic statistics put growth at a healthy 3.5% for the third quarter. We should be dancing in the streets. No one is, because no one has any faith in these numbers. Waves of money are sloshing through the system, creating a false rising tide that lifts all boats for the moment. The tide will recede. The boats aren’t rising, they’re bobbing, and will settle. No one believes the bad time is over. No one thinks we’re entering a new age of abundance. No one thinks it will ever be the same as before 2008. Economists, statisticians, forecasters and market specialists will argue about what the new numbers mean, but no one believes them, either. Among the things swept away in 2008 was public confidence in the experts. The experts missed the crash. They’ll miss the meaning of this moment, too.

The biggest threat to America right now is not government spending, huge deficits, foreign ownership of our debt, world terrorism, two wars, potential epidemics or nuts with nukes. The biggest long-term threat is that people are becoming and have become disheartened, that this condition is reaching critical mass, and that it afflicts most broadly and deeply those members of the American leadership class who are not in Washington, most especially those in business.

I read the rest of the column and I have to agree that we as a people are getting frustrated and disheartened.  I know why I am.  I am in the group that disagrees with the people in power and no one is listening to me (which is why I started the blog).  The proposed solutions treat me as a child who can’t be responsible while at the same time taking more and more of my money for my “own good” to fund this junk.  If Peggy is seeing this also, it is not something simply out here on the fringe.

Yes, I don’t see any of the leaders out there presenting a path to recovery and prosperity.  The Democrats with everything going on are more concerned with consolidating power than they are fixing the mess.  Regardless what Obama says about how we need to let him clean it up, I have not heard a plan.  Lowering emissions and decreasing energy use is not a plan to grow the economy.  Offering heathcare to those who don’t have it won’t grow the economy.  And spending $787 billion on stimulus over several years is not showing much progress either.

Where is the leadership?  Where is the plan to get us back?

I think Peggy says it nicely about our current leaders:

We are governed at all levels by America’s luckiest children, sons and daughters of the abundance, and they call themselves optimists but they’re not optimists—they’re unimaginative. They don’t have faith, they’ve just never been foreclosed on. They are stupid and they are callous, and they don’t mind it when people become disheartened. They don’t even notice.

At some point, children have to grow up.  Hopefully, it will be soon enough to make the pain bearable.

- FOP Vermillion

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The Problem is Jobs

Most people who visit this site have seen the chart from Innocent Bystanders which shows the actual unemployment number versus the projected unemployment (see below) when the stimulus bill was being debated.  However, the percentage is just part of the story.  The truth is that overall jobs available are decreasing (see below: also from Innocent Bystanders) and this has gone on for twenty-one months.  This is a sobering thought on its own.  This article from FoxBusiness.com gives a bunch of stats relating to unemployment that may be news if you have not delved deep into the numbers.

The truth is the numbers are much worse (17%) when the discouraged and part-time workers are included.  This means that when the economy takes off, the unemployment number will not be coming down any time soon since the jobs will bring the discouraged workers back.

With this in mind, it is clear we are in bad shape and despite what VP Biden, says, the stimulus is not working.  So now Major Garrett reports that the Administration is looking at measures they can take to help (don’t call it Stimulus II).  The problem is, and this is a big one, the proposed changes do hardly anything to create jobs.  For the most part, the proposals are designed to make unemployment more comfortable which may be compassionate but is does nothing for the problem.  The job creator that I see in the report is an extension of the first time home buyer credit.  It may help some.  I see the home credit as a smaller cash for clunkers which has created artificial demand for homes that otherwise would not have existed so it likely will help some.

What we need are JOBS.  I am not optimistic with the current leadership but our best bet now to get out of the recession is for someone to  step up and admit that the targeted stimulus and “shovel ready” projects are not creating work and they need to take a free market approach.

Here are some things I would like to see although I do not expect they will be likely considering who is in charge at the moment.

  • A stop on any legislation that if passed would harm business and restrict hiring.  If this one happens, it will be because the legislation was defeated. This would help move the business mindset away from risk management and damage minimization.  The fear of what might be forced on the market is encouraging playing it safe.
  • Tax incentives to encourage hiring.  This one is pretty obvious.
  • Tax incentives to encourage businesses to spend the cash they are accumulating.   They are sitting on huge cash reserves and they will not spend it if they don’t see a benefit.
  • A tax holiday for individuals to increase take home.  Let;s face it … if we have more in our pockets, most of us spend it and consumer spending is needed if we are to come out of the recession.
  • Incentives to encourage investing.  Those who have money are sitting on it or going for “safe” investments like gold.  That is no good for the markets.

We need to get people out of the fear mode and optimistic about the future.   To do that, we need things that are going to move the people with the money, whether that is individuals or businesses.  Increasing unemployment benefits and reducing the cost of insurance while you are out of work will not accomplish that.

- FOP Vermillion

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J O B S – Not Being Stimulated

This article by the Heritage Foundation reinforces what I am seeing in the business sector.  The problem with the economy in general is that the current environment is one where risk and investment is being avoided on a massive scale.  This is topping the natural creation of new jobs.  Companies are not going to hire people when the next time congress meets, they could get whacked with regulations, taxes, and fees that completely undercut their strategy.  Business is in a bunker mentality.  Until they know the shelling is over, they are going to continue to lie low and make safe moves.

No matter how much our leaders in DC want to make us believe they can stimulate us out of the recession, the truth is it will take individuals who are willing to invest and risk to create the jobs that will grow us out of these times.

- FOP Vermillion

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