Forward Observation Post – Vermillion

Views and Vents from the Frontline of the Culture War

Posts Tagged Politics

It is not over yet

Dec 20

Posted by FOPVermillion in General, Politics | No Comments

All the news about the health care monstrosity continues to demonstrate that the Democrats are moving toward getting their bill out of the Senate.  It is disappointing how easy it is to buy off and arm twist Senators.  At this time, I think the bill will make it out of the Senate.  Once this happens, it gets interesting.  The only way this ends quickly is if the House bites the bullet and goes to pass the Senate version.  That way it will be over and they don’t have to come back to the Senate.  Considering how much the White House has been working over everyone to pass the bill, I can see this option being a real possibility.  However, one should not underestimate the egos in the House.  They have a lot in their bill that they see as being important.  After all the bruising to pass their version, to walk away and take the Senate version will be a VERY bitter pill.  Because of this, I think the reconciliation process is a real possibility.  The bill that comes out has to pass both chambers again and there will be no ability to modify the bill.  There is every possibility the compromises will strain the coalition that needed to be built to pass the first time.  I am sure Nancy can get the 218 votes needed but getting back to 60 could be a real problem in the Senate.  Time is on our side.  If the bill goes to conference, it will be there for weeks if not months.  When it comes out it, the public will get to read it and send some heat to everyone who is thinking of voting on the bill.  Beyond that, there is the election year issues.  The longer the process takes, the more it becomes an issue in the primaries and general election.

The people clearly do not like the bill.  If this process drags out to election time, it will become the central theme of the election and based on the current polls, this will not be a good thing for the leadership of the Democrats.  Obama has the luxury of not having a re-election fight for a few more years.  This is not a luxury many in Congress have at their disposal.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the egos in the House rule the day and the bill goes to committee.

For once, I am glad congress is filled with self important fools.

- FOP Vermillion

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West Point Blues

Dec 1

Posted by FOPVermillion in Millitary, War on Terror | 1 Comment

I just caught the last few minutes of the speech at West Point and I am pissed.  First, for a President that has not shown that he gets the military or the fact that we are at war, it came across as if the Corps of Cadets was being used as a prop.  Considering how bright these young men and women are, they could have gotten into the elite colleges, and yet they CHOSE to go to a college where they would be required to serve after graduation and go into harm’s way.  You do not do this if you do not believe in the country and the cause.  West Point is famous for the Douglas MacArthur speech where the words Duty, Honor, Country rang through the hall.  The corps knows what is at stake and they do not need to be sold.

The second thing that got me going was the whole world without nuclear weapons bit.  I do not for one second believe that if we had no weapons we would all get along.  An argument can be made that the longest period of prolonged peace has been since the invention of nuclear weapons.  To think that we would be liked and listened to if we were weak is naive.  It is a nice idea to hold onto in college but in a world leader it shakes my confidence.

Tonight was a disappointing night.  Obama went to West Point to elevate his stature.  He failed.

- FOP Vermillion

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The Dreaded Reset

Nov 23

Posted by FOPVermillion in Politics | No Comments

I was reading this post at Powerlineblog where Paul gives some good analysis of the terrible decisions we are making in Afghanistan.  I agree with the substance of the post – the administration is stumbling around and heavy handed in country.  The result is a poor policy and we are losing ground.  The part that got me thinking was this bit:

Now, at last, we’re attempting a “reset.” The CIA has sent a field officer who has strong relations with Karzai to be its Kabul station chief and Hillary Clinton – the Secretary of Reset – tried to charm Karzai at a dinner earlier this week. Meanwhile, Holbrooke is spending more time in Washington and has focused on obtaining international support of reconstruction projects and development programs. This sounds like his highest and best use.

I agree the Administration is trying a reset.  The problem is resets only work in theory.  Relationships between states are not purely about one group’s opinion.  Sure when you have a change of administration, you get an opportunity to make changes, but you still do not get a clean slate.  Regardless of the positions taken by the previous administration, there are reasons the relationships and positions taken exist.  The simplest reason, and the one that Team Obama seem to underestimate, is that the other side has their own agenda and priorities.

So the idea of a complete reset at the beginning is a stretch.  It is even more absurd after they have been ham-handed and decide you need a fresh start.  Think of this in terms of your own life.  You have a business in town that you deal with and has been around for a while.  Now they get bought out and let everyone know they are “under new management”.  So you check them out and decide they you do not like the way you are treated and the customer service is poor so after a few experiences you start going less or not at all.  Well they want your business so they decide to fire the manager and “reset” the business.  They make a big deal about the change to get you in.  Do you go back?  Maybe, but more than likely, you still expect to be treated the way you were before and you may not need them anymore.  You have found someone else who does the job you need done and you like them better.  Just because they canned the old manager doesn’t mean you are running back.

This is the same garbage the Obama Administration is trying to pull.  They are all, “We are new and improved” and then when they blow it, they try to change the faces and say forget what happened before.  The problem is the world is watching and they are figuring out the playbook.  If we can’t get serious about diplomacy and not having to rely on do overs to give us chance after chance to get it right, we are doomed to be a joke in international relations.

- FOP Vermillion

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The Momentum is Coming to an End

Nov 15

Posted by FOPVermillion in Economy, Politics | 2 Comments

Obama’s obsession with pushing through health care reform to the exclusion of everything else is costing him.  I understand this is seen as his signature item and a many liberals and Democrats WANT the legislation very badly.  The problem is that as James Carvile said, “It’s the economy stupid.”  Everyone is worried about 10%+ unemployment and the fact that the job pool is shrinking.  They are much less concerned about health care right now.  If Obama had not come into a bad economy when he took the oath of office, he and the Dems could be rolling through one piece of major legislation after another.  However, that is not the case and the Administration seems tone deaf, to be generous.  They have too much invested in health care reform to let it go but this article by Scott Rasmussen highlights the the fact that the dems are losing the public.  If they cannot get this beast passed soon, and they make it the cornerstone of next year, they will have serious problems.

Come next November, the economy and jobs will be the number one issue.  If the Dems have any chance not to repeat 1994, they need to be able to point to things they have done to create jobs.  Without that, they will have to spend their time and war chests to convince the voters that the bills they have passed will not do as much damage as many analysts suspect.  This is not a good position to be in.  “Re-elect me because my it won’t be as bad as my opponent says it will be” is not a strong selling point.  I suppose they will try to pass Stimulus II but there is no chance it will have an impact prior to the election unless it business and tax friendly so that the effects can be felt right away.  Continuing to extend unemployment is not a winner in my book.  It does help ease the pain of being out of work, but it doesn’t get people back to work.

Right now Obama is dividing the party and focusing on the wrong things.  In short order, Obama could take his party from majority to minority status in a short two-year window.  Considering how much I do not like the direction this President and Administration want to take the country in, I am happy to see it happen.  Twelve months ago, I expected the Democrats would be in power for four years for sure and more than likely another four based on Obam’s popularity.  Now with all the missteps and ham-handed manner they have governed, there is a real chance they will blow it all before Obama is even up for re-election.  Amazing.

- FOP Vermillion

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Cold Feet in Congress

Nov 3

Posted by FOPVermillion in Politics | No Comments

More good news coming out of Congress relating to the healthcare bill.  Now the talk is that the “debate” will drag into next year.  Time is on our side in this one.  Time and time again, it has been proven that when the Democrats finally put out a plan and the public gets to see it, the public doesn’t like it.  That is one reason why the Dems have been rushing to push through a bill in the same style as cap and trade.  However, this time around people are getting smart, and let’s face it… reps are getting beat up in their districts, making it hard to ram through a bill.  Now if the elections go heavy against the Dems, there will be a lot of people who will be less likely to  risk their skin on an unpopular bill.  Politicians worry about number one and I don’t mean THE ONE.

The best thing for the death of this bill is time.  As the Dems get colder feet, there will be more time as everyone looks for a face saving option which means more time.  And more time is good.

- FOP Vermillion

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Why We Are Not Excited

Oct 30

Posted by FOPVermillion in Economy, General | No Comments

I was reading Peggy Noonan’s column today and I think she nailed it.  We are in the middle of good economic news and potentially the end of the recession and no one is excited at all.  As she starts off:

The new economic statistics put growth at a healthy 3.5% for the third quarter. We should be dancing in the streets. No one is, because no one has any faith in these numbers. Waves of money are sloshing through the system, creating a false rising tide that lifts all boats for the moment. The tide will recede. The boats aren’t rising, they’re bobbing, and will settle. No one believes the bad time is over. No one thinks we’re entering a new age of abundance. No one thinks it will ever be the same as before 2008. Economists, statisticians, forecasters and market specialists will argue about what the new numbers mean, but no one believes them, either. Among the things swept away in 2008 was public confidence in the experts. The experts missed the crash. They’ll miss the meaning of this moment, too.

The biggest threat to America right now is not government spending, huge deficits, foreign ownership of our debt, world terrorism, two wars, potential epidemics or nuts with nukes. The biggest long-term threat is that people are becoming and have become disheartened, that this condition is reaching critical mass, and that it afflicts most broadly and deeply those members of the American leadership class who are not in Washington, most especially those in business.

I read the rest of the column and I have to agree that we as a people are getting frustrated and disheartened.  I know why I am.  I am in the group that disagrees with the people in power and no one is listening to me (which is why I started the blog).  The proposed solutions treat me as a child who can’t be responsible while at the same time taking more and more of my money for my “own good” to fund this junk.  If Peggy is seeing this also, it is not something simply out here on the fringe.

Yes, I don’t see any of the leaders out there presenting a path to recovery and prosperity.  The Democrats with everything going on are more concerned with consolidating power than they are fixing the mess.  Regardless what Obama says about how we need to let him clean it up, I have not heard a plan.  Lowering emissions and decreasing energy use is not a plan to grow the economy.  Offering heathcare to those who don’t have it won’t grow the economy.  And spending $787 billion on stimulus over several years is not showing much progress either.

Where is the leadership?  Where is the plan to get us back?

I think Peggy says it nicely about our current leaders:

We are governed at all levels by America’s luckiest children, sons and daughters of the abundance, and they call themselves optimists but they’re not optimists—they’re unimaginative. They don’t have faith, they’ve just never been foreclosed on. They are stupid and they are callous, and they don’t mind it when people become disheartened. They don’t even notice.

At some point, children have to grow up.  Hopefully, it will be soon enough to make the pain bearable.

- FOP Vermillion

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Photo-op or Respect? UPDATE

Oct 29

Posted by FOPVermillion in Millitary, War on Terror | No Comments

Last night the President went to Dover AFB and paid his respects to eighteen fallen soldiers as they came home to their families.  Considering this is the same person who had to be shamed into meeting with the commander of our forces there, and who has been unable to make a decision on troop levels and strategy, I have a hard time not being cynical about the motivation.  (Now to be fair the tone of the WSJ linked article bothers me so maybe the warm and fuzzy feeling just went away too quickly.)  Knowing what I know about our CINC I imagine the decision was made on the basis of the photo-op and who died (most died in a helicopter crash rather than in combat) rather than honor for the fallen.

Prove me wrong Mr. President.  Don’t make this a one time thing.  Honor our warriors and their sacrifice.  They deserve it and they have earned it.

- FOP Vermillion

Update:  Well it looks like Hot Air has caught the friends of the White House at the NY Times covering up the fact that the trip to Dover AFB was a calculated move that looked good.  The operative phrase is “intended by the White House to convey to the nation that Mr. Obama was not making his Afghanistan decision lightly or in haste.”  I would rather have been proved wrong.

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Bono’s Vision

Oct 18

Posted by FOPVermillion in Economy, Environment, General | No Comments

Bono had a piece in the NY Times today.  It was interesting because it gives a nice insight into the liberal thought process without the hate and personal attacks that you often see.  The thing that stood out to me was that even while being supportive of Obama, it was weak and damning to a point.

To start the essay, he points out that Obama’s win of the Nobel Prize was not based on accomplishment but based on projection.

There’s a sense in some quarters of these not-so-United States that Norway, Europe and the World haven’t a clue about the real President Obama; instead, they fixate on a fantasy version of the President, a projection of what they hope and wish he is, and what they wish America to be.

However, Bono thinks the “virtual Obama” is the real Obama and the basis for this opinion is a part of the speech given at the UN last month.  The key passage for Bono is:

“We will support the Millennium Development Goals, and approach next year’s summit with a global plan to make them a reality. And we will set our sights on the eradication of extreme poverty in our time.”

The millennium goals are a set of guidelines that according to Bono are to reduce “extreme” poverty.  Of course that is just one part (the whole list is below), but it is a part that is near to his heart.  The remaining parts of the three “extremes” that need to be addressed are ideology and climate.  If only these three extremes could be eliminated, the world would be a better place.  Based on Obama’s words, Bono believes the changes needed can happen as long as there is action behind them.

Now, I think this is all wishful thinking and not just because Obama has not shown he is big on follow through.  The words are getting old to me as the results are few and far between.

But to the three extremes:

  • Poverty:  I believe that the root to the poverty problem is not a lack of wealth but a lack of opportunity.  People going about and doing what they are best at … chasing a profit motive will create more wealth than any other method.  The biggest barrier to opportunity is the government systems that empower few and funnel wealth to those who do not earn it.  As long as there are dictators and feudal lords who can demand wealth from those around them at the point of a gun, there will be limited opportunity.  Considering the make up of the majority of governments at the UN, I do not expect that much will truley change in this area.  There may be wealth transfer but it will not make its way to the people who need it.
  • Ideology: When most people think of extreme ideology, they think left-right.  As much as I disagree with the opposition, the real problems in this area are outside of the US.  Currently, radical Islam would be the best example of this in my mind.  Those who disagree and refuse to submit are executed.  The problem is not one of understanding, it is of acceptance.  In this area, the US is not the problem.  Until I see true moderates in this area outside of the country, I do not expect there will be any progress regardless of who the President is.  In the end, we are not the ones saying submit or die so it is only logical to assume the ones saying it must change or be defeated.
  • Climate:  If you have been reading this blog you know my thoughts on man made climate change/global warming.  The bottom line is I think it is bad science.  the planet warms and cools over time and we can do nothing to stop it.  The fact that the theories have to keep changing reinforces my point.  Let’s get to where we can acurately predict the weather a few years out before we start making dramatic changes to society to prevent a potential coming problem.

The entire list of Millennium Development Goals are:

  • Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger;
  • Achieve universal primary education;
  • Promote gender equality and empower women;
  • Reduce child mortality;
  • Improve maternal health;
  • Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases;
  • Ensure environmental sustainability; and,
  • Build a global partnership for development assistance.

The actual problems that Bono see are ones that will need to be solved by people and not governments.  The three extremes are problems of the world and people and will not be solved by decree.  They will only be solved, where they can be solved, by a billion small individual actions.  No matter what Obama’s actions are, or what the UN does, the end result will be minimal change if the real change does not come from the bottom up.

- FOP Vermillion

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Universal Declaration of Human Rights, article 25(1); ICESCR article 11
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Universal Declaration of Human Rights article 25(1); ICESCR articles 13 and 14; CRC article 28(1)(a); CEDAW article 10; CERD article 5(e)(v)
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Universal Declaration of Human Rights article 2; CEDAW; ICESCR article 3; CRC article 2
Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Universal Declaration of Human Rights article 25; CRC articles 6, 24(2)(a); ICESCR article 12(2)(a)
Goal 5: Improve maternal health Universal Declaration of Human Rights article 25; CEDAW articles 10(h), 11(f), 12, 14(b); ICESCR article 12; CRC article 24(2)(d); CERD article 5(e)(iv)
Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Universal Declaration of Human Rights article 25; ICESCR article 12, CRC article 24; CEDAW article 12; CERD article 5(e)(iv)
Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Universal Declaration of Human Rights article 25(1); ICESCR articles 11(1) and 12; CEDAW article 14(2)(h); CRC article 24; CERD article 5(e)(iii)
Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

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New Hope

Oct 12

Posted by FOPVermillion in General, Politics | No Comments

Recently I have been getting down as the health care bill seems destined to be rammed through Congress.  There are many procedural tricks, the Dems in Congress are many, and the momentum against it is slowing down.  So today I get some good news that the insurance companies are finally starting to fight back.  Now that the financial details are starting to come out, it is clear nearly anyone in the medical care industry is going to get soaked.  It is easy to get in bed with the government if you think you will come out out ahead.  However, if your margins are being squeezed and you will be blamed as quality of care comes down then it is a little less appealing.

There is a lot of money on the sidelines at the moment and the public is not behind the takeover.  If the industry decides to push back hard, it will cause a significant problem for Congress.  The web, combined with large industry advertising spend, could cause the Democrats to pause and that would be a good thing.

Right now the inertia is on the side of “reform”.  We need some luck if we are to going to see this bill die.

- FOP Vermillion

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Welcome Anita

Oct 10

Posted by FOPVermillion in General | No Comments

Visiting Hot Air I came across a post by Anita MonCrief giving some insight on how she became an “ex-liberal”.  I  found her blog and the entire post is there.  One of the parts that grabbed me is this paragraph:

The Democrats seemed to be the answer: social programs, better schools, and politicians who cared. I do think that if I had never seen the other side of community organizing that I would still be blindly following along that same path. Being a conservative gives me hope, and peace. While it has not been easy, I decided to start with what made me love America as a child – its history and Constitution- and go from there. Friends who are still radicals rail at me for loving a country that enslaved us, and I tell them I don’t. I love a country that had the guts to stand up time and time again and right a wrong. A country that is not afraid to pick itself up and start again.

Her love of our history and Constitution is something we share.  I know we are not perfect, and many liberals want to focus on the flaws to minimize the positives, but we have a great deal to be proud of.

Being Conservative/Libertarian in my values and actions if not in name for my entire life, I have no first hand knowledge of what it is like to be a liberal just as I will never know what it is like to be a black woman.  I have enjoyed discovering Anita’s blog and I look forward to hearing her perspective as she becomes more involved in the Conservative movement.

- FOP Vermillion

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